Research

Economic sanctions are frequently employed by third parties in civil war contexts with the aim of influencing the conduct and outcome of the war. Previous research has primarily focused on whether sanctions can speed conflict resolution or termination by incentivizing states to cease hostilities. However, the implications of sanctions for post-conflict outcomes have been less explored. We examine how the threat and imposition of sanctions during civil wars influence the prospects of lasting peace through their effects on the probability that rebel groups transform into political parties. We propose two mechanisms through which sanctions affect rebel political involvement: cost generation and legitimacy signaling. Sanctions that impose costs on governments during civil wars can bolster rebels' relative capacity and increase their prospects of becoming political actors. Furthermore, sanctions that target the government's behavior in the conflict can signal the legitimacy of rebel groups’ demands, thereby fostering their transition into the political sphere. To investigate these expectations empirically, we utilize cross-national data to examine the relationship between the threat and imposition of sanctions, conflict recurrence, and rebel group transformations. Our analysis provides valuable insights into the determinants of lasting peace and the long-term consequences of sanctions in post-conflict settings.

Scholars argue that states delegate their “dirty work” to pro-government militias (PGMs) during civil war to avoid accountability from both domestic and international audiences. However, in addition to using PGMs, we observe the simultaneous use of domestic trials for prosecuting rebels. In principle, resorting to these trials may lead to releasing evidence or accusations, holding state leaders accountable for their behavior during the war, and exposing them to accusations of war crimes and human rights violations committed by the PGMs. Why would states pursue both strategies - use PGMs and prosecute rebels in domestic courts? We argue that governments make strategic calculations regarding these tactics and are more likely to prosecute rebels in different trial venues, conditional on the type of PGMs they employ. We examine our argument using comprehensive data on PGMs and During Conflict Justice from 1981 to 2014. Our argument adds nuance to the conventional wisdom on plausible deniability and has implications for transitional justice mechanisms following armed conflict.

 Research highlights women’s role in advancing gender-sensitive provisions and fostering sustainable peace, but less is known about how their participation shapes broader public perceptions of peace processes. This paper draws on a survey experiment conducted in Colombia to examine how the presence of women negotiators influences public attitudes toward a peace negotiation between the government and a rebel group. Using a single-factor design that varies the number of women included in government and rebel delegations, the study tests perceptions of corruption, trust in the process, and expected success. Findings show that even minimal female representation significantly reduces perceived corruption and increases support for the process. Greater representation leads to even more favorable views, particularly regarding trust and the perceived likelihood of success. Women’s presence did not significantly alter perceptions of the government or the negotiation’s importance. Rather, respondents focused on the integrity of the process itself. To complement these findings, inductive coding of open-ended responses reveals that participants often associate women with honesty, transparency, and conciliatory attitudes in peacebuilding. These results underscore the symbolic and substantive effects of women’s participation, showing how their inclusion enhances public trust in peace processes beyond gender-specific outcomes. The findings suggest that even limited representation can generate meaningful public support, reinforcing the case for women’s involvement not just as a matter of equity, but as a strategy to strengthen legitimacy, transparency, and confidence in peacebuilding efforts. 

What influences women’s representation and inclusion in power roles in contexts of civil conflict? The international community has devoted extensive resources and attention to increasing women’s participation in conflict resolution processes and post-conflict settings. A prominent reason for this focus is that women’s representation at various levels of decisionmaking contributes to the sustainability of peace. Among the strategies used to support peacebuilding, United Nations Political Missions (UNPMs) have become quite salient. However, the extent to which UNPMs can contribute to increasing women’s inclusion in power positions has not been systematically studied. I argue that deploying UNPMs can enhance women’s power positions in a country because their agendas generally address democratization and inclusive peacebuilding processes. To examine their effect, I compile data on the presence of UNPMs in countries experiencing civil conflict from 1946 to 2016. I assess the impact of UNPM’s presence on levels of women’s empowerment using V-Dem data. Findings suggest that UNPMs significantly increase levels of women’s empowerment. These results have important implications for understanding the gender policy impact of peacemaking strategies in conflict settings.

How do rebel groups' commitments to IHL and HHRR affect conflict resolution processes? We argue that when rebels express commitments to IHL and HHRR during the conflict, they convey a signal to third parties about their willingness to commit and their goals, which in turn facilitates the involvement of third-party mediators during negotiations. Using panel data on rebel groups' humanitarian commitments from the Geneva Call “Their Words” in civil conflicts, we analyze the effect of different types of commitments on conflict resolution outcomes. Our findings show that when rebels make these commitments, they are more likely to participate in mediated negotiations. Our research calls attention to the effect public commitments by rebel groups have on conflict resolution outcomes.